The number itself is not the news. The steadiness is. PSA's last three fortnightly updates each took between 0.9 and 1 million units off the backlog: 10.9 million on 25 August, 9.9 million on 8 September, and about 9 million on 22 September. Before that the line moved both ways. It rose to 12.4 million in late July on convention-season volume and a rush of submissions meeting the pause deadline. The fall since then has been orderly.
The threshold that matters is 5 million, the figure PSA set in June for bringing the Value tiers back. That leaves about 4 million units to go. At the pace of the last six weeks, that is eight to nine weeks, which puts it around late November. That is our arithmetic, not PSA's forecast. It assumes new volume doesn't outrun output, which PSA's July numbers show can happen. It also matches what PSA itself projected on 2 June, when it said it would take five to six months to get there.
Two cautions come before anyone plans around that date. First, reaching 5 million is the point at which PSA says it will evaluate reopening. It is not a promise that Value reopens that week, and PSA has given no date. Second, a reopening will be crowded. Every submitter who stopped in June has been holding cards and watching the same number.
For anyone deciding today, nothing has changed. The cheapest open route is Standard at $59.99, quoted at 90 to 100 business days, and it is graded after the older Value and Bulk orders already in the building. The trade is the $59.99 now against a lower but undated price later, and the tracker is the thing to watch.
